Harris Roen, Editor
Roen Financial Report
March 8, 2013

As a result of a disappointing earnings release, SolarCity (SCTY) took a shellacking on Thursday. The stock traded down 17.6% to the low of the day, and closed down 14.4%. Still, the stock is up 6.5% for the month, and the savvy investor would have gained 78% if they bought SCTY on the first day of trading in December 2012.

So what happened? Moreover, what is the outlook for this innovative solar company?

It was no surprise that when SolarCity’s earnings results were released on March 6, the company had a net loss for 2012 (chart above). Slightly more severe than the cash burn in other years since 2009, the company lost $56.7 million for the year. This gave SolarCity a negative EPS of -0.54, which came in 23% lower than analysts’ expectations. These same analysts are seeing negative earning persist for the at least the next two years.

Not all the news was negative, though. Revenues grew tremendously for this company. Sales were up more than double of what they were in 2011, and almost triple that of sales in 2010 (chart above). The number of clients grew even faster, and though revenue per client decreased, the increased volume of clients more than made up for this (chart below). With the attractiveness of distributed solar in the U.S. going forward, and the expertise and desirable financing options SolarCity brings to the table, continued client growth is virtually assured.

What I also find encouraging is that the customer acquisition cost, or the amount of money SolarCity spent to get a new customer, decreased dramatically in 2012. It reached an extreme of $13,651 spent to obtain each new customer in 2011, but dropped to $3,003 in 2012. Compared to a revenue per customer in 2012 of $4,157, this is a hopeful sign for SolarCity’s business plan if these trends continue.

Though I still view SolarCity as an investment for the speculative portion of a portfolio, the long-term prospects for this company look good. It has had two impressive announcements of late – a contract with WalMart to install more than 4.7 megawatts of solar on stores in Ohio, and a high-profile partnership with Honda. Investors that are willing to ride the SCTY stock price rollercoaster are likely to be rewarded handsomely.

Comments are closed.